Search This Blog

Blogger Widgets
Your Ad Here

15 October 2011

Early or late, GE13 a gamble for Najib..


Datuk Seri Najib Razak is a cautious man who is caught between a crisis of confidence and trust.

Whether he chooses to call for national elections early or wait out the full term now depends on how well he convinces voters he has the will to change.

But with 18 months left to the Barisan Nasional’s (BN) mandate and with the US and European markets crashing one after the other, Najib’s options have narrowed to a six-month deadline that started last Friday immediately after the government’s sugary Budget 2012 that is being financed heavily through borrowings.

Najib’s options to call for a general election have narrowed to a six-month deadline that started last Friday. — File pic
“Let’s face it the world economy is not going to pick up anytime soon. Why wait?” the Centre for Public Policy Studies (CPPS) director, Ng Yeen Seen, told The Malaysian Insider.

“Any strategic leader will call for elections within six months of the budget before the world economy gets worse,” she said.

Economists predict that Malaysia may recover from the world economic fallout in two years at best; at worst, they think the gloomy global economy may hover for five more years, which will exceed the mandate expiry.

The Treasury, which is already strained by the government’s promise to maintain its RM33 billion annual cost in subsidies, is unlikely to pull through in an emergency.

Political analysts said that time difference is the key factor that will decide if the ruling coalition can regain its two-thirds control of Parliament, lost for the first time in Election 2008, or see public support swing further in favour of the opposition Pakatan Rakyat (PR) pact.

“The prime minister is flying high now compared to after the Bersih 2.0 demonstration on July 9. He’s got to show a vote for Najib is a vote for BN,” said political scientist Sivamurugan Pandian.

The sixth prime minister scored close to 80 per cent public support when he entered office in April 2009.

His popularity plunged 20 percentage points in the days immediately after his government cracked down on civil society dissenters who took to the streets in calling for elections to be cleaner and more transparent.

Najib’s Malaysia Day announcement for a bipartisan parliamentary panel to discuss electoral reforms has helped restore public trust to a certain degree.

But Mr Cautious’ swift move to repeal outdated laws that allow detention without trial in Parliament last week and which free up the media helped boost public confidence.

Born into the Pahang aristocracy, the son of Malaysia’s second prime minister Tun Abdul Razak Hussein will be seeking his first mandate since taking over office from fifth prime minister Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

“He’s being tested. He’d not want to go down as the BN’s last PM,” Sivamurugan said of Najib.

But the USM don did not think Najib is in a position to call for polls until after March, when the controversial Internal Security Act (ISA) is due to be repealed in Parliament and its two replacement security laws that deal directly with terrorism and domestic racial and religious tensions are presented for approval.

“People want to see to see the outcome of the law reforms first, especially ISA, which is only going to be tabled in March. It’s an opposition bullet so he has to handle it wisely,” Sivamurugan said.

He echoed Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, the country’s longest-serving PM who is also seen to be Najib’s sifu, to hold off calling elections until next year.

The still-influential Umno politician has twice warned Najib this year against holding the 13th general election this year, saying the BN lynchpin party was fragmented and internal sabotage will cost Najib to lose big in the ballot boxes.

“He needs to strengthen co-ordination among BN parties too,” Sivamurugan said, referring to the squabbles that continue to plague the ruling coalition’s 13 parties.

Leaders in the MCA, the BN’s Chinese component and second-biggest party, have yet to close ranks and set aside their bitter rivalry despite their recent annual general meeting two weeks ago.

They have been practically written off as irrelevant by its ethnic community they were sworn to represent as more and more Chinese Malaysian businessmen are selling off their public-listed shares and moving their operations, or threaten to, outside the country.

But another political scientist, Mohammad Agus Yusoff, said Najib has little time to weigh his options and must call for elections in January or at the very latest by March next year to capitalise on his Budget 2012, which was designed to please the populace.

“But it’s not good for the country and is not a solution to our economic problem. It’s going to increase the government’s deficit because the money is funded by borrowings. We can’t depend so much on borrowings,” he told The Malaysian Insider.

CPPS’s Ng, who deals with public policies, shared the same view. She said Najib will be taking calculated risks in calling elections early but if he waits till full term, the vulnerable economic situation will become worse and a stronger civil society could emerge.

The Bersih 2.0 rally was led by a coalition of 62-registered civil societies who appear to have gained strength from the global support for their demands, especially from the critical western nations.

The lessons of July 9 seem to have spurred them further to realise their individual causes. Most recently, the anti-Lynas grassroots group from Najib’s home state, Pahang, has boosted its representation and delayed the operations of Australian rare earth miner in the coastal town of Gebeng.

“Najib is holding a double-edged sword whether he calls for elections early or waits out the full term,” Ng said.

Mohammad Agus said if Najib chooses to call polls after March, the latter will lose the momentum from the budget and must start all over again.

The UKM professor in history, politics and strategy studies said: “It won’t be an election budget anymore… The government is under siege. We badly need to restructure the economy.”


What we have here is a very unpopular PM, not elected by the Rakyat but through the dirty process within the very dirty UMNO. He is tainted with all kinds of accusations which he thinks he can magically make them disappear by running away. His santa-claus give-aways and blatant abuse of the national coffers ('you help me, i help you'), just to win votes, can only expedite the demise of the country's economy - how extremely sad for a country so rich in so many things.

denied does not mean that did not happen ... it is a lie ... to deceive the people...NRD denies Johor foreigners given ICs


The National Registration Department (NRD) denies bussing 240 foreigners to Putrajaya on Wednesday to collect identification cards.

PAS had alleged that six buses filled with Indonesians and Bangladeshis had travelled from Johor to be given citizenships so they could vote for Barisan Nasional (BN).

But NRD director general Datin Jariah Mohd Said was quoted in Sinar Harian today as saying "we are not aware of this and I myself only found out through the media."

"None of my officers were there. All registration matters must be done at NRD offices or counters," she said.

She also denied that the NRD was involved in any syndicate to hand out ICs to foreigners.

PAS Youth had said that it followed the entourage of buses across Putrajaya until they stopped at a nearby resort in Sepang.

Its deputy democracy bureau chief Mohd Adram Musa said a man leading the group told him that they were there for a course on entrepreneurship.

But Adram claimed that others in the bus said they were there to collect ICs and that there were police, health ministry and other government officers that were part of the entourage.

Pakatan Rakyat has previously claimed that the BN government has given citizenships to at least 1,600 foreigners in exchange for their votes.

The government has since formed a bipartisan parliamentary select committee to look into electoral improvements including cleaning up the electoral roll.


This reflects the PM.s statement that the they must defend putrajaya at all costs As if putrajaya belongs to them What a stupid arrogance Probably he hasnt heard of democracy a syatem whereby the right to govern is by the choice of the people More than 5 decades of rule without any check has scrambled their brains

Of course Datin don't know, Maybe A parallel NRD office was setup to issue ics to foreigners who have attended the assimilaion courses in Bangi for UNMO. The Malays now will be diluted with Indons and Banglas as their brothers now. Or is it a citizenship for Sale racket being uncovered. Two birds with one stone kind of deal where they must vote for the party and they pay for the business course....sama2 untung.

Near Sepang? Last time PAS found illegal immigrants given brief near Salak Tinggi.

Looks like Selangor will be the power grabbing state.

PR, please check Selangor's electoral rolls.

As usual NRD like to deny and all the people believe that it is work of the UMNO and BN gorvenment plan to stay in power illegally.

Popular Posts

Your Ad Here