MCA in turmoil: Why it matters

Efforts by the Barisan Nasional (BN) government to woo back lost support from the country's large ethnic Chinese community could be damaged by the sacking of a popular leader.

Datuk Seri Dr Chua Soi Lek, deputy president of the MCA — the second largest party in the BN coalition — was expelled from the party late yesterday over a sex video that emerged in late 2007.

Here are some questions and answers about the rival factions in MCA and how the dispute could affect the BN and investors:

DOES THE MCA MATTER?

Yes. It is the second-biggest and most influential party after Umno within the 13-member BN. It holds 15 seats in the 222-seat Parliament.

The MCA represents ethnic Chinese voters, who make up more than a quarter of Malaysia's 27 million people, and are the second-most important ethnic group vote bank after the majority Malays and remain the most economically dominant community.

Many urban Chinese voters turned against the party in the 2008 elections, saying it failed to fight discrimination, including long-held policies favouring ethnic Malays.

But MCA has clung on in some ethnically mixed seats with support from ethnic Chinese and Malay voters in the BN bastions of southern Johor and central Pahang states.

The sacking may erode support in these seats, especially in Johor where Chua is popular.

CAN MCA AND BN RECOVER?

It's an uphill battle. The MCA has suffered from previous bouts of infighting, most recently, a split between two rival factions in 2001 over the party's investment arm taking control of Chinese newspaper Nanyang Siang Pau.

The party usually settles down after a truce is worked out by Umno. But with the opposition stronger than at any time in Malaysia's 51 years of independence, the risks are higher.

With the BN still weak after a slew of by-election losses this year, there is a risk the infighting will not be resolved before the next general election due by 2013.

WHAT COULD BE THE IMPACT OF THE MCA SPLIT?

Growing unhappiness over sacking Chua, who made a political comeback when party members voted him into a top party position after he resigned as health minister over the sex video, could see more Chinese support for the opposition.

Umno could also suffer as Chinese voters are spread across the country. Analyst Ong Kian Ming calculates that the MCA and Umno could lose more than six more Parliament seats in the next polls if the ethnic Chinese voters don't come back.

COULD IT UNSETTLE MARKETS?

Not in the short term, but signs of political weakness in the coalition and in MCA could unnerve investors as it may limit Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak's room to manoeuvre as he seeks to reform the country's economy.

The MCA controls five newspapers, including the best-selling Star Publications as well as other businesses. Changing alignments could damage those businesses as Malaysia has a system of political patronage that feeds into the business world.

Malaysia, once a darling of foreign investors, saw huge portfolio outflows in 2008. According to estimates from investment bank BNP Paribas that amounted to 11.4 per cent of gross domestic product, the highest ratio in Asia.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT?

Chua has 14 days to appeal the ruling. Umno could jump in and broker a peace deal similar to the tussle in 2001.

Chua could get his supporters to call for an extraordinary general meeting to unseat party president and Transport Minister Datuk Seri Ong Tee Keat on a vote of no-confidence — a plan that was brewing before Chua got sacked.

This comes amid calls from some in the MCA to suspend Ong and to investigate an allegation that he took a RM10 million donation for his party from a top businessman involved in a scandal-plagued free trade zone project. Ong has denied the charges and filed a defamation suit.


comments

"Efforts by the Barisan Nasional (BN) government to woo back lost support from the country's large ethnic Chinese community could be damaged by the sacking of a popular leader."

Not true at all. It makes no difference the Chinese community who is the head of MCA, whether they are united or divided. Who cares about MCA anyway?