Bagan Pinang - Umno big win weakens the PAS

The PAS has accepted its defeat in the Bagan Pinang state by-election but has named postal votes as a factor for its failure to wrest away the Barisan Nasional (BN) stronghold.

However, observers believe the PAS was pretty left on its own to feel how it is to be 'trashed' by UMNO's powerful machinery. The same observers believe if the PKR had fiielded a candidate, the margin of victory of the UMNO would have been lesser but this is now history and nothing will prove such a theory unless the PKR fields its candidate at Bagan Pinang in the next G.E.

On the other hand, the UMNO is reeling in victory with the big win against the PAS and the Pakatan in the by-election, a win that will surely bring back the confidence of the BN.
The Bagan Pinang election is a real turn around for the BN since it will give the coalition the belief that it is abck in the popular ratings and it can now face-off Anwar Ibrahim and his Pakatan anytime. The Bagan Pinang is also a stepping stone for the BN to launch its campaign in Sarawak for the next Parliamentary elections in the state. The large victory will be publicized in such a way as to portray a return of the Indians, the Chinese and the bulk of the Malay community to the BN.
It will also be possible that a big win by the BN in Sarawak will also trigger the idea that a 'snap' General Electons in Malaysia may give the BN a bigger win and get back its 2/3rd majority that is now missing in the National Parliament.
The BN's pattern is now seen as follows:
The MCA has decided to vote against a leader who might have opened a pandora's box that would have endangered the Barisan coalition over some accusations of malpractices. The Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak made it clear that the MCA must clean its image and bring back the Chinese community support to the BN. This surely is in view of the next G.E.
The MIC is now trumpeting that in Bagan Pinang, it has finally reversed the negative responses from the Indian community and it has delivered the majority of the Indian community's vote to the BN. This is again a preview of what the Prime Minister is expecting for the next G.E.
With the Bagan Pinang result, the BN may now campaign that it has done what it takes to win back popular support despite the fact that Tun Mahathir's rejection of the BN candidate on grounds of his previous indictment for corrupt practices.
Now what about the Pakatan opposition? Loosing one battle does not mean they lost the war for the next G.Election. The fact that the Pakatan was not really present at Bagan Pinang and the 'froglighting' attitude of the PAS to join the BN soon and abandon the PR has had a negative effect on the votes for the opposition.
Now that the PAS has felt the wrath of the Umno and is tasting the bitter pill of defeat at the hands of its future 'fiancee', the PAS may turn around and seal the pact with the Pakatan to form a new coalition for the next G.E.

Nevertheless, the PAS is still a threat to the PR and its big defeat is probably a statement to the PR parties that the PAS is not really needed in the PR and that it could finally join the BN to salvage its future or what is left of it.

The PR may still survive without the PAS - and if it is joined by the PAS members who would break away from PAS in the event the PAS were to leave the PR.

The next landmark event for the PR will be the 'sodomy' trial against Anwar Ibrahim which will probably get to see its conclusion before the holding of the next General Elections in Sarawak. The Pakatan is also learning that in politics, the three big sins are: 1. Failure to deliver (like in Kpg Buah Palah in Penang), 2. Disunity and mistrust (like that between PAS-DAP and PAS-PKR), and 3. Leapfrogging is betraying (and it works both ways). Perhaps the PR will now find solace and seek more unity within its ranks while the members who are dreaming of ministerial posts should just leapfrog and face their future on their own.


comments

Look, most of these people are from the older generation, ie. the chinese and indians of BP. They obviously are afraid of PAS for obvious reasons. So, better vote for BN, status quo. They flourish under BN prior 3/8. This is what I gathered from most people. So, to say that BN is still relevant, who are you kidding? MCA/MIC is definitely not relevant long time ago! Let UMNO stand on its own and see how they fair. Dare they call for a snap election on the whole country and watch the results, muyiddin? Sheesh..... I believe BN will be wiped out or something drastic may change for the better of all in 3 years time!