Can Isa make it a self-fulfilling prophecy?

If Barisan Nasional (BN) candidate Tan Sri Mohd Isa Samad wins the Bagan Pinang state seat when voters go to the polls on Oct 10, it could very well be a case of self-fulfilling prophecy.
From the get-go, Isa has been touted as a “sure win”, boasting credentials including being Negeri Sembilan menteri besar for 22 years and former federal territories minister. This confidence is largely reflected in Isa’s campaign and possibly has an effect on his opponent’s morale.

Isa, 59, is well-received when he hits the trail. He needs no introduction and delivers his standard speech with ease, charismatically calling on voters to support BN for continued development and prosperity.

The Umno veteran plays a proactive role in his meet-and-greets; always jovial, ever ready to crack a joke, to shake hands and smile for photographs.

His opponent, a lesser known Negeri Sembilan PAS commissioner Zulkefly Mohamad Omar, meanwhile appears to lack the political finesse and charm despite running for election for the fourth time.

Zulkefly, 44, seems approachable but is slightly awkward when meeting voters, often relying on his party colleagues and Pakatan Rakyat (PR) peers to show him the way and make introductions.

This time around, PAS’ election campaign appears to be lacklustre compared with its previous poll runs, which saw an impressive display of party machinery.

Asked on this, PAS vice-president Salahuddin Ayub conceded that the party’s machinery was not as smooth this time as the party faced financial difficulties, having participated in eight previous by-elections with PR.

PAS does not have a strong footing in Negeri Sembilan unlike its PR partner, DAP, which is operating an efficient supporting campaign.

PKR, the other partner in the PR coalition, has been largely invisible in the last six days of campaigning. While both Isa and Zulkefly have addressed local issues, what is likely to make the difference to voters would be whether the candidate can walk the talk.

PR leaders have consistently brought up Isa’s previous “taint” as the former MB was slapped with a three-year suspension from Umno after he was found guilty of money politics in the 2004 party elections.

Similarly, PAS has also been making daily revelations to highlight Isa’s failures and alleged abuse of power when Isa was menteri besar. But these minor bombshells appear not to have slowed Isa’s momentum thus far.

Isa has taken these allegations head-on, fielding questions from reporters and providing answers, even if his responses sound like a line out of politicians’ standard script.

However, some voters may still be endeared to Zulkefly, who is heralded as the “clean” politician which Malaysians want to see.

PAS and DAP figures have conceded that winning this by-election would not be easy as PR was up against a massive political figure by comparison.

There are no “hot issues” to fuel PR’s campaign, DAP’s Lukut assemblyman Ean Yong Tin Sin told The Edge Financial Daily recently. “There are small local issues but when you touch it, it doesn’t burn you,” he said.

Controversial national issues — including the recent “cow head” protest against the relocation of a Hindu temple in Shah Alam, temple demolitions and the death of political secretary Teoh Beng Hock — have not had a strong resonance in Bagan Pinang.

The temperature is expected to rise from Oct 9 as the opposition big guns, including PKR adviser Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and PAS spiritual leader Datuk Seri Nik Aziz Nik Mat, being pouring into town to throw their weight behind Zulkefly.

However, it remains to be seen if the “Anwar Ibrahim factor” would help give PAS’ efforts a last-minute boost. The real battle ground in Bagan Pinang is largely the Malay votes. This small constituency is a Malay-majority area and traditionally an Umno stronghold.

Bagan Pinang has 13,664 voters of whom 8,577 or 62.77% are Malays, 1,498 (10.96%) Chinese, 2,834 (20.74%) Indians and 755 (5.54%) others.

Isa may be confident of victory but the real test would be in the volume of Malay support he receives in his hometown.
PAS vice-president Salahuddin Ayub told reporters on Oct 8 the party was sure of a 15% jump in Malay votes but remained cautiously optimistic of a win.

The Chinese votes are believed to be rather safe in PR’s pocket, as DAP is strong in Negeri Sembilan, while the Indian votes are difficult to gauge at this moment.

The Indian community living in the estates are expected to vote for BN.

Going by conventional wisdom, older voters are more likely than younger ones to support BN. Based on statistics from PAS, about 37% of Bagan Pinang voters are below the age of 40 and this could work to the opposition’s advantage.

Voters aged 26 to 40 make up 33.09% of the electorate while those aged 21 to 25 account for 4.15%. Voters in the 51-60 age bracket make up 20.65% while those above 61 comprise 17.01%.

There is also room for surprise if the younger constituents who are working outstation return to Bagan Pinang this weekend to cast their vote.

Postal votes are another key battle ground as there are 4,604 of such votes out of the total of 13,664 votes in Bagan Pinang. Although the postal votes are considered a reliable source of votes for BN, there is still a chance for a small surprise, bearing in mind that PAS’ candidate Ramli Ismail grasped a quarter or 1,189 postal votes during the general election last year.

This was despite Ramli’s defeat to BN incumbent Azman Mohammad Noor, who passed away on Sept 4.

In the event it loses, PAS can still celebrate a minor victory if Zulkefly succeeds in widening the party’s share of postal votes. Bagan Pinang makes its decision on Oct 10.


comments


From the get-go, Isa has been touted as a “sure win”, boasting credentials including being Negeri Sembilan menteri besar for 22 years and former federal territories minister. This confidence is largely reflected in Isa’s campaign and possibly has an effect on his opponent’s morale.

ERRRR... TRY TAKING OUT THE POSTAL ARMY VOTES AND SEE HOW MANY HE WILL
REALLY GET. EVEN IF BEEND PUTS UP A MONKEY, THEY WILL STILL WIN.